Wednesday, February 02, 2011

Why he won't leave; The Messiah Complex, Je suis l'etat and all that, old chap

The angst of the day, as we all follow "Al Thawra", the rolling revolution "فی کل مکان", as the slogan goes, is the regime in Egypt turning ugly and starting to break heads. "Why doesn't he leave now? The writing seems on the wall?"

A couple of things go through my head on that. Firstly that kind of person has a psychosis all their own. The Messiah Complex (a phrase often used when Musharraf was in power); "Je suis l'état. L'état c'est moi." or what have you.

Secondly, people keep asking "Who will negotiate from the other side?" Well the crowds ARE negotiating. The people set up the table. Appointing a Vice President was Mubarak's opening gambit. The people didn't blink. Agreeing not to run again was his next gambit; one, of course, also backed by one of the folks that, as we say in the US, "brung him" to the dance. Now we see him trying to follow through on that gambit by seeing if he can't last out till September—however unrealistic that might be, he's not got much to gain by going right now in his ken, I think. And the aim might be to enable the next layer of this regime (which, after all, means the power structure, not just the man at the pinnacle of it) to dig in and even start to ingratiate itself with all the stakeholders (from the people to the patrons).

What are you thinking?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Having been in politics I know how easy it is to get lost in a bubble created by your friends and supporters. Especially in a state that doesn't tolerate open criticism it is easy for a leader to fall into that delusive narcissism.

There are now rumors of Israel shipping chemicals and devices to Cairo for "crowd control." If true this would be incredibly foolish as it would outrage and antagonize the Egyptian people, and for Israel the smart thing would be to hedge their bets and work with El-Baredei to assure that existing treaties outlast the current regime. Relations with Israel have not been an issue in this uprising and the Israelis would be smart not to make it one.

Either way, I fully expect the 5th to be a bloody debacle that will hasten Mubarak's downfall.